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DTN Midday Grain Comments     11/19 10:59

   All Grains Higher at Midday

   Broadly firmer trade at midday, with spring wheat the laggard. 

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments



   The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow down 85. The dollar index is 
flat. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are weaker with crude 1.30 
lower. Livestock trade is weaker with hogs sharply lower. Precious metals are 
mostly higher with gold up 1.30.


   Corn trade is 4 to 5 cents higher with good buying amid oversold conditions 
so far today, with little fresh news except 191,000 metric tons of corn hitting 
the daily wire. Ethanol margins remain stable with ethanol futures following 
the corn rally this a.m., while blender margins compress. Basis has held up 
well with the slow pace of harvest so far with propane shortages still noted, 
but warmer weather should help through this week with midweek rains slowing 
progress in some areas. South America should see areas of improvement as 
planting progresses, especially in Brazil. Harvest progress was rated at 76% 
vs. 92% on average. On the December contract support is the $3.67 1/2 lows from 
Monday along with the lower Bollinger Band at $3.66, with resistance the 20-day 
at $3.80. 


   Soybeans are 5 to 6 cents higher with profit taking vs. recent shorts at 
midday with little fresh news otherwise as harvest winds up. Meal is 1.00 to 
$2.00 higher, and oil is 40 to 50 points higher. The ral remains at the lows 
with planting getting to 70% complete in Brazil and only limited near-term 
concerns. Bean basis has moved to a more sideways trend short term with pockets 
of firmness showing up at crushers. Weekly harvest progress was 91% vs. 95% on 
average. On the January chart support is the lower Bollinger Band at $9.07, 
which we are back above with resistance well above the market at $9.28 where 
the 20-day moving average, along with oversold conditions.


   Wheat trade is flat to 8 cents higher with trade trying to build on the 
positive start to the week with further condition declines and a mixed forecast 
coming forward. The Chicago/Kansas City December spread is 87 cents with choppy 
action to start the week. The corn/HRW spread has widened back to 51 cents, 
pushing wheat further from the feed bunk. The weaker dollar could help more if 
sustained vs. world values this week. Export business wil be watched with more 
Mediterranean tenders going out this week. Weekly crop progress showed planting 
at 95%, same as average, with 83% emerged vs. 86% on average, with 52% good to 
excellent, down 2 percentage points, and 14% poor to very poor with some 
moisture expected for the west in the extended forecast. The December Kansas 
City chart support is the lower Bollinger Band at $4.13, with resistance the 
20-day at 4.23 which we are above at midday.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser. 
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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